Navigating Multipolarity

Reimagining Process Design for Future Strategic Stability Frameworks

Abstract

As the international security landscape transitions from Cold War bipolarity to contemporary multipolarity, the classical paradigm of arms control is increasingly ill-suited to address emerging strategic challenges. The rise of China as a major military and nuclear power, the erosion of existing arms control agreements, the dysfunctional siloed (if not frozen) inter-state dialogues, and the proliferation of emerging and disruptive technologies collectively signal a breakdown of traditional strategic stability frameworks. This paper examines the theoretical limitations of mainstream schools of arms control and limitations of current diplomatic practice before arguing for a fundamental rethinking of process design in strategic stability negotiations. Drawing from the interdisciplinary field of peace process mediation, the paper identifies key variables—such as timing, dialogue formats, sequencing, diplomatic orchestration, and inclusivity—that can inform a more adaptive and process-oriented approach to great-power arms control. Rather than prescribing a fixed model, the paper advocates for a shift toward ecosystem-based, multi-track diplomatic strategies that incorporate lessons from conflict mediation to better navigate the complexity of modern multipolar deterrence relationships. Such radical reimagining is essential not only to reduce the risk of inadvertent escalation and an arms race, but also to generate new pathways toward more cooperative security among the United States, Russia, China, and beyond.